Mid-Month to Mid-Month: Where Are Propane Prices Headed?

History would show that propane prices usually rise with the beginning of heating season and the onset of fall and winter. However, in the more recent history, prices have fallen into a category putting them at the lowest prices of the year as blustery weather takes hold. So far, how does this year compare?

Mont Belvieu postings mid-August to mid-September ranged from 54.673 cents to 61.090 cents, and Conway from 46.067 cents to 52.168 cents. Unlike last year when prices were climbing steadily during this period, postings have headed to the downside as autumn nears. Spots ran very similar with Belvieu slipping from 51.75-52.00 cents to 51.375-51.875 cents, and Group 140 following at 46.75-47.25 cents dropping to 45.75-46.375 cents.

The average posted price at Mont Belvieu mid-August stood at 61.090 cents/gal., a gain of 2.75 cents from a month prior’s 58.340 cents, and a strong 12.50 cents higher than a year earlier’s price of 48.590 cents/gal. The following week the price slumped 1.333 cents to 59.757 cents where it strengthened a bit to 59.840 cents to end the month. September nudged up less than a half-cent to 60.257 cents/gal., then sank 5.584 cents to 54.673 cents. The period finished with a 5.084-cent rise to 59.757 cents.
Conway, Kan. posted prices shaved off a little more than one-cent/gal. from a month prior, to start the period at 51.918 cents/gal. Compared to a year earlier, current prices soared a sharp 14.868 cents above the 2019 posted prices. The following week, the price rose to 52.168 cents, an addition of 0.25 cents. The next week lost that increase as the price slipped to 51.868 cents to end the month. The September price continued the slide to 50.767 cents, followed by an even larger 4.70 cent loss to 46.067 cents/gal. Mid-month prices settled 3.40 cents higher at 49.467 cents.

Mont Belvieu spot propane began mid-month at 51.75-52.00 cents/gal., 3.50 cents more than the previous month’s price, and 2 cents above a year ago. The following week, prices sagged 1.25 cents to 50.50-51.125 cents, but immediately rebounded a bit to 51.00-52.00 cents to end the month. September saw a 2.5-cent loss to 48.50-49.75 cents, and another stronger retreat to 44.75-45.00 cents. The period ended higher at 51.375-51.875 cents.

Conway spots opened mid-month at 46.75-47.25 cents, 0.75 cents less than a month earlier, but a significant 16.75-cent gain over a year prior. The spread widened slightly the following week to 46.625-47.50 cents, however, and ended August narrowing the spread to 46.875-47.25 cents. Moving into September, a loss of 2.375 cents pushed prices to 44.50-44.75 cents, and an additional 3.25-cent dip took them to 41.25-41.375 cents. At mid-month, they rose to 45.75-46.375 cents.

SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, September 17, 2020. Weekly Propane Newsletter subscribers receive all the latest posted and spot prices from major terminals and refineries around the U.S. delivered to inboxes every week. Receive a center spread of posted prices with hundreds of postings updated each week, along with market analysis, insightful commentary, and much more not found elsewhere.