Mid-Month to Mid-Month: Propane Strengthens

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The energy industry remained focused on the global glut of crude oil and refined products at press time, and increasingly below-breakeven production prices in a lower-demand environment. Forecasters were calling for the period of market imbalances to extend longer than expected. While market watchers had called for a price rally by mid-2016, a growing chorus of forecasters was expecting energy commodities to remain in the doldrums—absent sudden shifts such as Venezuelan exports collapsing or the Saudis reversing course and cutting production. But even as oil prices remained 60% below the highs seen last summer, propane over the mid-month period managed to strengthen, buoyed by crude briefly rising to near $50/bbl, then falling but nonetheless remaining in the $45/bbl range. Even as concerns become more acute over China’s economy, the questionable health of which is pressuring energy stocks and prices worldwide, for now posted prices at Mont Belvieu are back above 50 cents and spots have climbed north of 40 cents as the crop-drying and winter-heating demand seasons approach.

Mont Belvieu posted prices entered mid-August at 46.375 cents, hardened a bit to 46.813 cents a week later, but then fell about 2 cents at month’s end. But as September arrived the average jumped 8 cents to reach 52.813 cents/gal., and the following week prices gained another 1.25 cents to stand at 54.063 cents. This week the average has jumped nearly 2.5 cents more to stand at 56.50 cents.

Posted propane at Conway, Kan. began mid-August averaging just shy of 38 cents/gal., dipping fractionally the next week and then give up 2.5 cents as August closed. September saw prices bounce 8 cents higher to 43.270 cents and reach 44.490 cents a week later. This week prices have stretched higher to 47.678 cents.

Mont Belvieu spots began the August-September mid-month period at 36.50-37.25 cents/gal. A penny was added the next week, only to slip away as August gave way to September. The new month had spot propane jumping 9.625
cents to 45.75-46.00 cents, but tip to 43.375-44.00 cents the next week. This week spot propane has gained again to stand at 45.75-46.25 cents/gal.

In the Midwest, Conway spots began the period at 33.75-34.25 cents/gal., remain little changed the next week, then lose about 1.5 cents as August faded. September spot propane rallied 9.5 cents to rise above 40 cents at 41.75-
43.00 cents, then slip a bit to 41.00-41.57 cents a week later. This week prices have climbed to 43.625-44.25 cents/gal.

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