Mid-Month to Mid-Month: Are Propane Prices Strengthening Their Base?

With crop drying and heating season on the horizon, many marketers are pondering just what Mother Nature has up her sleeve for winter 2020-2021. Deciding how much supply to have on hand can sometimes seem like a roll of the dice. However, will marketers heed the warning of many traders, as well as PERC and the National Propane Gas Association, who advise that supplies should be secured early to ensure that adequate product is in place, or has been procured, as customers begin to purchase their fuel to take them into the fall and winter season?

The average posted price at Mont Belvieu mid-July stood at 58.340 cents/gal., a slight dip from a month prior’s 59.840 cents, but still marginally higher than a year earlier’s price of 58.173 cents/gal. The following week saw a 1.667-cent gain to 60.007 cents, only to be squelched as the month ended at 58.673 cents. August started with an increase of 2.75 cents/gal. to 61.423 cents. The period finished by dipping 0.333 cents/gal. to 61.090 cents.

Conway, Kan. posted prices shrugged off a bit more than 2 cents/gal. from a month prior, to start the period at 52.919 cents/gal. Compared to a year earlier, current prices increased 10.469 cents above the 2019 posted prices. The following week, the price rose to 54.068 cents, an addition of 1.149 cents. The next week lost that increase as the price fell to 51.968 cents to end the month. The August price rose 1.30 cents to 53.268 cents, but mid-month saw a 1.71-cent slide to 51.918 cents.

Mont Belvieu spot propane began mid-month at 48.25-48.75 cents/gal., 2.25 cents less than the previous month’s price, but 2 cents above a year ago. The following week, prices rose 3.5 cents to reach 51.75-52.50 cents, but immediately backed off to 48.75-50.00 cents to end the month. August began with a 3.25-cent addition to push the price to 52.00-52.875 cents, and then retreated again to 51.75-52.00 cents.

Conway spots opened the new period at 47.50-48.125 cents, 2 cents below a month earlier, but a strong 9.875 cents higher than a year prior. Offers added 2 cents the following week to 49.50-50.25 cents, however, they ended July by backing off 3.25 cents to 46.25-46.75 cents. Going into the new month, an addition of 1.375 cents nudged prices to 47.625-48.25 cents. At mid-month, they slipped to 46.75-47.25 cents.

SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, August 13, 2020. Weekly Propane Newsletter subscribers receive all the latest posted and spot prices from major terminals and refineries around the U.S. delivered to inboxes every week. Receive a center spread of posted prices with hundreds of postings updated each week, along with market analysis, insightful commentary, and much more not found elsewhere.