EIA Using Near-Real-Time Export Data to Improve Weekly Report

The use of near-real-time export data should reduce differences between EIA’s weekly data, as presented in the WPSR, and monthly data, as presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly report. The monthly data that the agency publishes 60 days after the end of each month are based on EIA’s monthly survey data and Census Bureau export data for that month. EIA notes that export data are an important component for the calculation of its weekly estimates of U.S. consumption of petroleum products. EIA calculates U.S. consumption using product supplied as a proxy for consumption. Simply, Consumption=Production+Imports-Stocks Change-Exports.

Three of those components are surveyed directly by EIA each week: refinery and blender net production, stocks change (inventories), and imports. Exports, the remaining component, have become more critical for market assessment and calculation of U.S. consumption of key petroleum products such as gasoline and distillate, but also propane. Over the first six months of 2016, EIA weekly estimates underestimated total crude oil, petroleum, and biofuel exports by an average of 16%, compared with the final data published in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report. The miscalculation of exports led to overestimating total consumption. The new methodology using near-real-time data from Customs significantly reduces the difference between weekly estimates and the actual data for total exports shown in Petroleum Supply Monthly during the first half of 2016. This improves both the export and total weekly petroleum consumption estimates found in WPSR Tables 9 and 1, respectively.

The difference between the old and new weekly methodologies differs across individual products. While the new weekly export calculation should provide improved weekly petroleum consumption estimates, there still may be differences between the weekly and monthly balances. Although the Census Bureau is able to directly validate data with export filers, EIA processes the raw Customs data without the ability to directly validate reported data with filers, and adds estimates for data not reported by Customs. In addition, there will continue to be minor differences between weekly sampled survey data and for non-export categories and monthly data because of standard sampling and statistical issues. Historically, these differences have been minor, with export data being the largest source of the discordance between the two series.