EIA Reports U.S. Emissions Flattening Through 2050

Under the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020 reference case, which assumes no new laws or regulations, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decrease through the early 2030s before rising to 4.9 billion metric tons in 2050. If realized, U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 would be 4% lower than 2019 levels. Changes in the fuel mix for electricity generation and increasing activity in the industrial and transportation sectors are the main drivers of EIA’s U.S. CO2 projections.

Total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions decrease until 2031, then slowly rise. The U.S. electric sector’s CO2 emissions experience the largest drop through 2025 as a result of coal power plant retirements and additions in renewable generation capacity. Beyond the coal-driven CO2 emissions decrease from 2019 to 2025, electric power sector emissions stay relatively constant throughout the projection period as the more economically viable coal power plants remain in service.

In addition, CO2 emissions in the U.S. transportation sector decline through the late 2020s. Rising fuel efficiency more than offsets the effects of increases in total travel and freight movements, and therefore petroleum-based energy consumption in the transportation sector falls.

Total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions resume growth after 2031, but remain 4% lower than 2019 levels by 2050. Increased activity in the transportation and industrial sectors leads to more consumption of petroleum and natural gas. Residential and commercial energy sector emissions remain largely unchanged throughout the projection period.

Other scenarios considered in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2020 demonstrate the sensitivity of U.S. energy-related CO2 emission projections to assumptions regarding such variables as economic activity, oil prices, renewable energy technology costs, and oil and natural gas resource estimates. Of the side cases, energy-related CO2 emissions vary the most in cases that modify economic growth assumptions. By 2050, emissions in the high economic growth case are 13% higher than in the reference case and 9% above 2019 levels. CO2 emissions in the low economic growth case are 11% lower than in the reference case and 15% under 2019 levels.

(SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, March 5, 2020. Subscribe for all the latest posted and spot prices from all major terminals and refineries around the U.S., market analysis, commentary, and more delivered to inboxes each week.)