EIA Releases the Annual Energy Outlook 2026

Editor’s Note: This press release from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) about its Annual Energy Outlook 2026 covers data for a variety of energy sources. BPN’s publication of this outlook is intended to give readers a look at overall energy trends in 2026.

The Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States through 2050. AEO2026 enables the public to explore a suite of alternative pathways for our energy future depending on assumptions made about markets, technological breakthroughs and policy. It includes a narrative report, as well as the full set of data tables and visualizations, assumptions and methodologies, and detailed descriptions of the 11 cases EIA ran to explore these alternative futures.

“AEO2026 is best understood as a product suite for alternative futures analysis, not a set of predictions,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.

Key takeaways include:

• Technology drives more efficient consumption of energy in the United States through 2050. Energy consumption remains relatively flat or decreases slightly through 2050 in most of EIA’s cases despite economic growth of 1.2% to 2.2% in its projections. Newer technologies deployed across the economy tend to be more efficient, reducing the energy needed to produce the same goods and services. In most of EIA’s cases, end-use energy consumption decreases in the transportation sector and is relatively flat in the residential and commercial sector despite increasing data center electricity demand.
• Data center load is emerging as the dominant driver of long-term U.S. electricity growth. After a decade-plus plateau, national electricity demand has risen 2.1% annually over the past five years and is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9% to 1.6% per year through 2050 across EIA’s cases.
• To meet growing electricity demand, installed electric generating capacity increases between 50% and 90% by 2050 across cases, shaped by natural gas prices and renewable technology costs. Natural gas, solar and wind supply the most electricity generation capacity growth and account for a combined 80% of generation in most cases by 2050.
• Natural gas production grows significantly, from 107 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 to between 133 Bcf/d and 151 Bcf/d by 2050 in most cases, driven by domestic and international demand. Production growth is strongest in the East region, which includes the low-cost Appalachian Basin. This growth requires pipeline infrastructure buildout to move this natural gas to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
• With only modestly increasing Brent crude oil prices over the long term and dwindling prime drilling acreage, U.S. crude oil production remains relatively stable, decreasing slightly by 2050. Production is between 12.4 million barrels per day (b/d) and 12.7 million b/d by 2050 in most cases compared with 13.6 million b/d produced in 2025, with the Permian Basin remaining the key area for U.S. onshore oil output. The United States remains a net exporter of petroleum in nearly all the cases, with petroleum liquids exports, in particular, increasing.
• Future U.S. coal demand depends on environmental policy as coal plant retirements drive coal demand even lower. If 2024 power-sector emissions regulations are enforced, coal generation is projected to mostly disappear from the power sector. This continues the trend of the past 15 years, during which coal power capacity was retired and replaced with natural gas and renewable generation capacity. Without the regulations, some coal-fired power remains.

The full Annual Energy Outlook 2026 is available on the EIA website.