EIA 2019 Outlook Projects Continued Robust Growth
The Outlook reference case projects significant sustained development of U.S. shale and tight oil and natural gas resources, as well as continued growth in use of renewables. The 2019 reference case projects that in 2020, for the first time in nearly 70 years, the U.S. will export more energy than it imports, and will remain a net energy exporter through 2050. U.S. energy export growth is driven largely by petroleum exports, including crude oil and products, and by additional liquefied natural gas exports. These trends have become clearly established, notes EIA, and the reference case shows them continuing for the next few years and then slowing and stabilizing.
“The United States has become the largest producer of crude oil in the world, and growth in domestic oil, natural gas, and renewable energy production is quickly establishing the United States as a strong global energy producer for the foreseeable future,” said EIA administrator Linda Capuano. “For example, the United States produced almost 11 MMbbld of crude oil in 2018, exceeding our previous 1970 record of 9.6 MMbbld.”
EIA’s reference case also highlights the impact of sustained low natural gas prices and declining costs of renewables on the electricity-generation fuel mix. Natural gas will maintain its leading share of electricity generation and continue to grow, increasing from 34% in 2018 to 39% in 2050. The renewables’ share, including hydro, also rises from 18% in 2018 to 31% in 2050, driven largely by growth in wind and solar generation.
“The AEO highlights the increasing role of renewable energy in the U.S. generation mix,” Capuano commented. “Solar and wind generation are driving much of the growth. In fact, our reference case projects that renew- ables will grow to become a larger share of U.S. electric generation than nuclear and coal in less than a decade.”
Other significant findings from AEO2019 include: the U.S. will continue to see record-high levels of oil and natural gas production. According to the report’s reference case, American crude oil output will endure to set annual records through the mid-2020s and remain greater than 14.0 MMbbld through 2040. Progressing development of tight-oil and shale-gas resources will support growth in natural gas and natural gas plant liquid (NGPL; propane, butane, etc.) output, which will reach
6.0 MMbbld by 2020, as well as growth in dry natural gas production. Dry natural gas production will reach 43 Tcf by 2050. NGPLs grow faster than other fossil fuels, and account for nearly one-third of cumulative U.S. liquids production during the projection to 2050.
U.S. net exports of natural gas will continue to rise as liquefied natural gas becomes an increasingly significant export, EIA maintains. In the reference case,
U.S. LNG exports and pipeline exports to Canada and Mexico increase until 2030 and then remain fairly constant through 2050 as relatively low, stable prices make
U.S. natural gas competitive in North American and global markets.
Further, increasing energy efficiency across end- use sectors will keep U.S. energy consumption relatively stable, even as the country’s economy continues to expand.
U.S. energy consumption grows across all major end-use sectors in the reference case, with electricity and natural gas consumption growing fastest. EIA’s AEO2019 features a reference case that includes the effects of current laws and regulations on the U.S. energy industry. As such, it can be used as a baseline in estimating the impact of potential policy changes in the future. The report’s release also includes six side cases. AEO2019 includes data browser tables and spreadsheets that can be downloaded free of charge at EIA.gov.
(SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, February 11, 2019)
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