China, India, Africa Energy Use Expected to Lead Consumption

(August 16, 2018) — The Energy Information Administration (EIA) writes that China, India, and Africa, three of the world’s most populated areas, collectively consume about onethird of all global energy. And their energy consumption is projected to grow faster than the rest of the world through 2040. As a result, changes in the Chinese, Indian, and African economies have significant implications for global energy markets.

EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2018 observes that, of China cases considered, the country remains by far the world’s largest producer of energy-intensive goods in 2040. Faster economic growth in China leads to higher energy consumption, but the amount of increase depends on how quickly the nation transitions from an export, investment-led economy to a more service-oriented, personal consumption-based economy.

India is projected to be the most populated country with the fastest-growing economy in the world under all three India cases. However, Indian energy consumption levels do not reach those in China or the U.S. in the next two decades in any of the cases considered.

Higher economic growth across Africa leads to an expanding manufacturing sector and increasing industrial energy consumption because of possible regional competitive advantages, EIA reports. Higher assumed economic growth over the projection period leads to African energy consumption per capita that is 30% higher than in the agency’s reference case in 2040.

China, India, and Africa collectively accounted for 32% of global energy consumption in 2015, and in EIA’s reference case the regions are forecast to account for 36% of world consumption in 2040.

(SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, August 13, 2018)