Winter Home Heating Bills Likely Slightly Higher In 2019

(October 15, 2018) — Most U.S. households can expect higher heating expenditures this winter compared with last winter, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Winter Fuels Outlook. Higher expected winter heating expenditures are mainly the result of higher prices for heating fuels since temperatures are forecast to be similar to last winter in much of the country.

EIA’s short-term projections for heating demand are based on the most recent temperature forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA’s forecast anticipates that the 2018-2019 winter will be 1% colder than last winter, which is close to the average of the previous 10. Noted is that expenditures for Midwest households using propane as their primary heating source are expected to decline.

The region, which has the highest concentration of propane heating, is the only

one expected to have warmer weather this winter. Because weather creates great uncertainty in winter energy forecasts, EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook includes projections for 10% colder and 10% warmer scenarios. In the past 10 winters, actual temperatures compared with NOAA’s September forecast have been more than 10% colder once and more than 10% warmer three times.

The average household winter heating fuel expenditures in EIA’s forecast provide

a broad guide to expected heating expenditures. Fuel expenditures will also depend on the size and energy efficiency of the home and its heating equipment, indoor temperature preference, and local weather conditions. The choice of

primary heating fuel varies considerably by region, contributing to regional differences in total spending. Natural gas is the most common space-heating fuel in every region except the South, where electric heating is more prevalent. Fueloil is much more common in the Northeast than in other regions, while propane is more common in the Midwest.

(SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, October 15, 2018)