ExxonMobil Forecast Sites Global Population Boom, Economic Growth To Drive Energy Demand

Global population growth of nearly two billion, a doubling of worldwide economic output, and rapid expansion of the middle class in emerging economies are all expected to contribute to energy demand growth of about 25% from 2015 to 2040, according to ExxonMobil’s 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.

Efficiency gains across economies worldwide will play a significant role in limiting the growth in energy needs. Energy demand in member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is likely to be flat to 2040, while demand in non-OECD nations is expected to increase 40% as prosperity expands and access to modern energy increases.

Growth in global energy demand will be led by greater electrification of the global economy. Fifty-five percent of the energy demand growth over the next quarter century will be tied to power generation needed to support the increasingly digital and plugged-in lives of society, according to the Outlook for Energy, the company’s annual long-range supply- and-demand energy forecast. Average electricity use per household will rise about 30% between 2015 and 2040. The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to about 30% from approximately 40% in 2015 as the use of lower-emission energy sources, including natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, increases. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak during the 2030s and then gradually decline. This is supported by an increased shift to less carbon-intensive energy for power generation and higher energy efficiency across all sectors.

In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60% of global energy supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching 25%. Natural gas demand will expand significantly, accounting for about 40% of projected growth in global energy demand. Nuclear and renewable energy sources—including bioenergy, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar—are also likely to account for 40%
of the growth in global energy demand to 2040. Oil will provide about one-third of the world’s energy in 2040, remaining the No. 1 source of fuel, with growth driven by commercial transportation and chemicals demand. Carbon intensity of the global economy is likely to be reduced by 45% through 2040, redirecting significant gains in the energy efficiency of economies worldwide and gradual transition to lower carbon-intensive energy types.

North America, which for decades has been an oil importer, is likely to become a significant net exporter by 2025. India is likely to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2025. The two countries are expected to account for about 45% of the growth in global energy demand.