Mid-Month to Mid-Month: Prices Solidify

During the latest mid-month period, prices at Group 140, Conway, Kan., have strengthened, with posted prices adding at least 10 cents/gal. during the time frame, and spots are higher by around a dime. Conversely, Belvieu has toyed around with postings very closely straddling 60 cents/gal. and spots holding a 5-cent range shadowing the 50-cent mark. Supply, prices, and weather remain the unknowns, and with the way 2020 has been, it’s anyone’s guess as to what the fourth quarter holds.
Midmonth chart 10 15

The Mont Belvieu mid-September price was slightly below 60-cents/gal. at 59.757 cents/gal., off 1.333 cents from mid-August’s 61.090 cents, but a strong 4.334 cents above a year earlier’s price of 55.423 cents/gal. The next week the price dipped by 1.250 cents to 58.507 cents to finish September. October began with a jump to 60.673 cents, and was followed by another nudge upward to 60.840 cents. The period finished with a final increase of 2.667 cents to lock in mid-October at 63.507 cents/gal.

Conway, Kan. posted prices began the period off nearly 2.50 cents from a month prior, starting at 49.467 cents/gal. Compared to the same time in 2019, the 2020 prices were 4.367 cents higher. The next week, the price rose above 50 cents to 50.417 cents, a gain of 0.95 cents, followed by a price increase of 2.50 cents to 52.917 cents to start October. This strengthening continued with a 4.05-cent addition to bring it to 56.967 cents. The mid-month price settled with a 3.15-cent gain to 60.117 cents.

Mont Belvieu spot propane opened the mid-September period at a 51.375-51.875 cents/gal., a slim 0.375 cents less than the previous month’s price, but a sizeable 5.500 cents higher than a year ago. The following week, prices sluffed off 1.625 cents to 49.75-50.00 cents. October began with a 2.375-cent dip to 47.375-48.125 cents, then pushed up 4.625 cents to 52.00-52.875 cents. The period ended with a penny addition to 53.00-53.50 cents.

Conway spots opened mid-month at 45.75-46.375 cents, 1-cent less than a month earlier, but a nickel above a year prior. The following week was virtually unchanged at 45.75-46.75 cents, but the new month began higher and with a wider spread at 46.785-48.25 cents. The next week saw a significant addition of 7.59 cents to take the spot prices to 54.375-54.625 cents, and at mid-month, they backed off a bit less than 1 cent to 53.50-54.50 cents.

SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, October 15, 2020. Weekly Propane Newsletter subscribers receive all the latest posted and spot prices from major terminals and refineries around the U.S. delivered to inboxes every week. Receive a center spread of posted prices with hundreds of postings updated each week, along with market analysis, insightful commentary, and much more not found elsewhere.