2020’s Oil Demand Recovery Slower; 2021 Demand Downgraded

Rystad Energy (Oslo, Norway) continues to update its weekly COVID-19 reports that calculate the effect of the novel coronavirus on global fuel markets. Its more frequent updates have resulted from recent developments, with travel restrictions, quarantine obligations, and new government policies being announced daily around the globe.
Its latest forecast for oil demand now projects a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% for 2020, or 11.4 MMbbld. Its estimates show that total oil demand in 2019 was about 99.5 MMbbld, which is now projected to fall to 88.1 MMbbld in 2020.

May demand is expected to fall by 20.5% to 78.5 MMbbld, while June demand is forecast at 84 MMbbld, down by 14.5% year-on-year. Total oil demand in 2021 is expected to average at 96.3 MMbbld.

Total oil demand in the U.S. for 2020 is now forecast to fall by 2.4 MMbbld to 18.1 MMbbld, an 11.8% decline from 2019’s 20.5 MMbbld. April saw a decline of 30.8%, with demand falling to 13.9 MMbbld. May will see a decline of 22.6%, with demand falling to 15.7 MMbbld. June demand is estimated to be off by 17.8% to 16.9 MMbbld. In 2021, total oil demand in the U.S. is expected to average 19.4 MMbbld.

SOURCE: The Weekly Propane Newsletter, June 4, 2020. Weekly Propane Newsletter subscribers receive all the latest posted and spot prices from major terminals and refineries around the U.S. delivered to inboxes every week. Receive a center spread of posted prices with hundreds of postings updated each week, along with market analysis, insightful commentary, and much more not found elsewhere.